the voice elimination prediction

The Voice Predictions: Who's at Risk on Top 9 Results Night?

The Voice Top 9 results telecast (tonight, 8/7c on NBC) should be as predictable as Pharrell sporting a knit cap — if the contestants’ iTunes rankings are to be believed.

Indeed, two artists are straggling like elderly impala at the back of the sales pack — and seem most likely to fall into the cruel and unforgiving jaws of elimination. But then again, we can’t forget about the all-powerful Blake Multiplier*. (*By which the country coach’s rabid fans vote for his artists regardless of performance quality.)

Granted, downloads are only one component of the elimination equation — there’s also online and Voice app votes to consider — but the Bottom 2 in Top 11 and Top 10 Weeks reinforced the idea of iTunes as a solid predictive tool. Once again this week, there’ll be a Bottom 2, an instant save, and only one elimination.

Let’s make some educated guesses about who’s at risk:

Ranking on iTunes Singles Chart at Close of Voting (Tuesday, Noon ET)
9. Adam Wakefield — Linda Ronstadt’s “Love Has No Pride”
10. Laith Al-Saadi — Bob Seger’s “We’ve Got Tonight”
11. Mary Sarah — Maren Morris’ “My Church”
18. Hannah Huston — Jessie Ware’s “Say You Love Me”
21. Bryan Bautista — Beyoncé’s “1 + 1”
25. Alisan Porter — Aerosmith’s “Cryin'”
37. Shalyah Fearing — Sam Cooke’s “A Change Is Gonna Come”
78. Paxton Ingram — Whitney Houston’s “I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me)”
113. Nick Hagelin — Drake’s “Hold On We’re Going Home”

By cracking the iTunes Top 10, Adam and Laith qualify for the multiplier bonus — and are all but guaranteed to advance to the Top 8.

Less certain — but pretty safe bets to advance — are Mary, Hannah, Bryan and Alisan, all of whom sold well enough to crack the iTunes Top 25.

If there’s going to be a surprise entry in the Bottom 2, it could be Shalyah, whose No. 37 finish is solid, but not exactly spectacular. She’s been near the bottom of the sales heap for three weeks running — which could indicate a less-than-zealous fan base.

Then again, Shalyah still winds up 41 places above Paxton and 76 slots above Nick — an indication that, at least among music buyers, her vocal performance was significantly more pleasing than those gents.

Nick would be the safest bet for a Bottom 2 showing – given his last-place sales ranking and the fact that he was in the Bottom 2 last week. On paper, you’d expect him to face off against Paxton (especially given the latter fella’s show-opening death slot) but as we’ve learned time and again, it’s dangerous to underestimate the power of Team Blake.

Bottom 2 Prediction: Nick and Shalyah (or perhaps Nick and Paxton) — with Nick going home.

Who do you think will and should go home on The Voice Top 9 results night? Sound off in the comments!

Comments are monitored, so don’t go off topic, don’t frakkin’ curse and don’t bore us with how much your coworker’s sister-in-law makes per hour. Talk smart about TV!

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57 Comments
  1. I’m really hoping that Nick finally goes home this week. I’m sure he’s a nice enough guy, and yes he’s got an adorable family, but this is a singing competition. One that I can’t understand how/why he was brought back to after already being sent home once before and how he’s lasted so long on.

    • Simple. His performance was better than Ryan’s in the Playoffs, and he got voted through. Bryan’s was so far superior to Ryan’s that Christina had to put Bryan through, despite Ryan being better in the previous rounds overall.

      • My point was/ is that he never should have been brought back by Christina & that he doesn’t have the chops to still be in the competition. America voted him through that first week & since then he’s been able to eek by since then because others have faltered. But it’s time for his run to be over.

    • Nick picked THE song to sing for the save because no girl can resist an Ed Sheeran song and he did a pretty good job with it. Unless he has something else like that up his sleeve, he may not do as well tonight. Just for the record, I enjoy listening to him and I’m glad he got a chance to come back.

  2. Bob Seger. Not Seeger. That’s Pete’s name.

  3. Sorry, but Alison has become a scream fest for me and I couldn’t understand a word she was singing. And wrong song to boot. Now, Hannah and Bryan are a different story..articulate, passionate and gorgeous vocals.

    • I agree. She’s still a great singer, but this was a mess. Her performances are all just buildups to the point where she yells for the final 30 seconds.

      This was the same problem with Meghan Linsey, although Alisan doesn’t shout from start to finish like she did.

    • usvoter3 says:

      I think the contestants need to sing songs that are more comfortable instead of singing in different genres because making a mistake is easier in unfamiliar genres.

    • Florence+TheMachineRulez!!! #TeamMariah says:

      Hannah and Bryan are insanely talented but it appears that the public won’t vote them in the public. Alisa, Adam, and either Adam/Mary are in the finals.

    • Oscarpig says:

      Blame her coach. Cut out the mommy crap and do some needed coaching for this talented woman

      • Ken says:

        In fairness to Christina, the Mommy thing is likely a story line crafted by producers, and that’s why it’s included. Like Adam said when talking about Shaliya, we don’t see all the b-roll they shoot each week.

      • Archerlady says:

        Thank God, finally someone said it about Alison. I just wish other women besides me were saying it out loud! The lousiest reason to vote a contestant through on a singing competition is that they have young children — and again on Alison, the even-more dreaded tearful, ‘I’m 9 years sober.’ The music industry has been filled with drug use since the Roaring Twenties so why is she p1mping that theme to death?

  4. Timmah says:

    They’re all at risk, except for Adam and Alisan who are a lock for the finale.

    • usvoter3 says:

      Laith might be there, too.

    • Alex Kawa says:

      Adam and Laith, being in the top 10 on iTunes, are locks for next week. Seeing as how Adam and Alisan have been co-frontrunners throughout the live shows, I’m quite sure she’ll be safe this week, but if she miraculously lands in the bottom 2, she will definitely get the Instant Save. I think Bryan, Mary Sarah, and Hannah will also be safe via the public vote, leaving Shalyah, Paxton, and Nick at risk. Nick will definitely be in the bottom 2, along with probably Paxton, seeing as how, aside from Nick, he was the lowest on iTunes, though he was the lowest overall three weeks ago, and he was still voted through by the public. It’s really hard to say whether it will be Shalyah or Paxton joining Nick in the bottom 2, but it’s easy to say that, whoever it is, they will most likely beat out Nick. The final 3 will probably be Adam, Alisan, and Laith, and it’s anybody’s guess as to who will get that 4th spot in the finals. I think Laith will finish in 3rd, and, you’re right, it’s between Adam and Alisan at this point.

  5. Rich Stowe says:

    Adam, Laith and Hannah have been the most consistent with Mary Sarah getting there…Alisan really needs to pick songs like last week and avoid the screechfest songs – right now my money is on Adam, Laith or Hannah to win it all…

    • Florence+TheMachineRulez!!! #TeamMariah says:

      Hannah is great but she never had a true breakout moment like ALISAN, Adam, and Laith had. Either she SLAYS next week, she will be in the instant save next week.

      • danin says:

        See, the thing is Hannah’s breakout moment happened in the blinds w/Unaware! I instantly fell in love w/her. Her entire being and body went into that gorgeous song. Why she hasn’t found that calibre of song in which her whole body is impassioned I cannot figure out. I love her&her quirks. She also needs to let that funny,spontaneous person I fell in love with come through again.

        • Donna says:

          Hannah just doesn’t connect for me , I feel like she is singing in a Miss America contest. She is a very good singer, just feel the connection to the songs are not there. Beautiful girl, but lacks sincerity in her performance.

    • chris kupstas says:

      I’m with you on your assessment of the top three so far. I think Adam is the most talented singer and Laith the best overall artist (playing instruments also). Hannah has continued to get stronger and stronger having very little performance background. In my opinion Alisan has a great voice but has not improved or even equal some of her early performances on the show.

  6. Gloryme says:

    Some poster at EW.com is trying to claim Slezak’s term “Swaybots” as a term he/she created.

    There is no longer any way to report anything to the higher ups at EW.

    So I thought it should be reported here.

  7. Voice Fan says:

    I’m thrilled that Laith and Adam made it into the top 10 because they get the multiplier but disappointed that Mary Sarah and Hannah didn’t make it. They were so close. I think Alisan Porter is going to be just like Christine Grimmie and may have to sing for the fourth spot if they do the instant save. Everybody said Grimmie was going to win because of her YouTube success and her opening for pop recording stars but Grimmie admitted when Adam said he would sign her that “no one would sign her.” There is a similarity between the two. Both have followers because of their past and celebrity friends but the complaints about both of them is that they are screamers and that could be why they couldn’t get recording contracts despite their performance success. Also Porter is 34, is a mother of two small children, is a recovering addict and couldn’t get a record contract on her own. Plus, she looks haggard and stressed out. Record companies want young fresh talent with no baggage who have energy to burn and stars in their eyes like Danielle Bradberry, Sawyer Fredericks and Jordan Smith. Audiences want singers with talent and experience like Craig Wayne Boyd and Josh Kaufmann. Laith and Adam have that. Like Grimmie, Porter was on the top of the I Tune Charts but then she fell to number six twice. So that shows her fans are not that loyal. In the end, Grimmie ended up third with Josh Kaufman first and Jake Worthington second. It looks to me like Adam and Laith and Mary Sarah may take the first three finale slots because of their I-Tunes success and their fans. Laith has tons of fans who kept him at the top of I-Tunes blues chart and country fans will vote for both Adam and Mary Sarah.

    • Rich Stowe says:

      if it’s Hannah vs Alisan for the final spot, my money would be on Alisan

      • Rich Stowe says:

        meant my money would be on Hannah not Alisan

        • Voice Fan says:

          I agree Hannah is young, the most talented, consistent and is the total package. Like Blake said, she looks like a superstar. She has the voice, youth, personality and is tall and beautiful like a model. Let’s face it. In the music business, you have to have it all. Look at Jennifer Lopez, Beyoncé, Britany Spears, Carrie Underwood, Faith Hill. They all look like movie stars.

          • usvoter3 says:

            I think Alisan is talented, but I prefer Hannah and think that she has been doing a good job in recent weeks.

          • Oscarpig says:

            But the hand has to stop the awkward moving. Maybe she should tie it behind her back. This week they tied it to her dress. Helped a bit

          • Smokey says:

            Hannah has some potentials she hasn’t used yet, I think she is basically reserved and not prone to use all the performer assets that some of the singers you mentioned, like Brittany, (and xtina) have used in their music productions and videos.

    • Smokey says:

      Just an observation — is that Alison has a recognition factor, because of her child movie star past, recovery story and new chance on “The Voice” ——– that goes beyond what loyal viewers of the show may have noticed. …..

      .Her story is being played-out across various areas of social media and TV mentions on daytime shows, etc. …………………………..this is not all about the singing skills that we like to compare, as viewers…………………. it’s also about who is “popular” in the minds of the person who tunes-in and takes the effort to vote. ……

      The show itself, has little ways of favoring someone by what is said, side-story focus, more favorable or endearing camera time…. Alison has the largest singular committed fan base IMO ———

      not saying she’s a cinch to win, but vote-splitting by using various methods, between the other contestants that we hope to keep-on, is what can keep Alison speeding toward the finish line.

    • Gigi says:

      Excellent post!

  8. A says:

    If Nick was in Blake’s team he might have won this season ;)

  9. Veronica Hart says:

    Think it’s about tme for Nick to go home,he is just not as strong as the others.

    • Lizzie says:

      I would like to hear him sing without filling up the time with falsetto – the guy is good looking, charming, and if I recall, his normal voice is pretty good. Falsetto is something best used as a highlight, not the entire song.

  10. Ellen says:

    Adam, Laith and Hannah. I wish I could add Alisan to this list, but this week’s performance was such a screamfest that I ended up fast-forwarding through her performance.

    • Florence+TheMachineRulez!!! #TeamMariah says:

      She’ll be back next week. That’s when we see her true colors

    • Lizzie says:

      I listened to her entire song, but it was painful. My husband called out from the next room during the song, “What is that noise? Did you think that was good?”

    • Donna says:

      Hannah just doesn’t connect for me , I feel like she is singing in a Miss America contest. She is a very good singer, just feel the connection to the songs are not there. Beautiful girl, but lacks sincerity in her performance.

  11. F. says:

    I bet Nick is going home. Song choice is so important now. Laithe does a great job with this every week. Adam is just all around perfect. Alison needs to do something like Blue Bayou which she did in blind audition. That is when she won me over. These are my picks for the final three if they keep picking the right songs. Love them all though!

  12. Spider_Web says:

    Alisan is the real deal. I love Aerosmith, but it was the wrong song choice for her – and it cost her the front-runner status this week. If she wants to throw it into a set list if/when she heads out on tour – great. But it didn’t have enough dynamics and it came off as a scream fest. This woman has serious pipes and deserves a shot at the big time. The only way she doesn’t win it all is if her song choices in the Semi-Finals/Finals don’t resonate with the voting population. There aren’t many people on this planet who can pull off Janis Joplin’s “Cry Baby” like she did. She should have saved that for the finale. Both Nick and Paxton are talented dudes, but one of them goes home tonight. And the other gets eliminated next week.

  13. carlabee says:

    I’m liking Bryan Bautista. He is the one that is getting stronger every week. He could be the come from behind winner!

  14. Linda G says:

    Agree that Nick should be the one to go home. He just isn’t as strong a vocalist as everyone else. Paxton will undoubtedly win against him.

  15. DJ says:

    Nick should go home. I have been wondering if his votes have been based on the fact he has a sick child. To me, he just has an average voice. As does Paxton, but he has showmanship which Nick doesn’t.

  16. Lizzie says:

    Nick is in the bottom 2, and then I would rather keep Paxton than Shayla. If Nick is singing for the save against Shayla, he may cute-boy himself out of going home.

  17. Cissy L. says:

    Miss S. Fearing should be eliminated even though she is talented. She is too young for this adult dominated competition. Alisan must stop screaming and return to singing. Her Aerosmith scream fest is better suited for Stephen Tyler.

  18. Bob says:

    I think Nick will go home but who knows. Bottom 2 in my opinion will be Nick and Paxton with Paxton beating Nick in the instant save. If one of them sings a song that allows them to show off some baritone then he will probably move forward. It’s crazy that Alisan, Hannah and Shaylah at times sing in a lower range than either Nick or Paxton and sometimes Bryan

  19. Jaszy says:

    It’s looking like Adam’s going to be the next WGWG to win.

    • Donna says:

      Hannah just doesn’t connect for me , I feel like she is singing in a Miss America contest. She is a very good singer, just feel the connection to the songs are not there. Beautiful girl, but lacks sincerity in her performance.

  20. Pam says:

    Does Carson read the results in order of votes? First read, most votes, second read next most and so on or is it random?

  21. Sue Everett says:

    I love Nick he is the perfect husband, son, brother , father all of us could wish for. I hope Nick wins

    • Tina says:

      I was disappointed with the results tonight. Thankfully, the three best singers are still in the game. Mary Sara could go home anytime. She’s okay, but how many petite blonde country singers do we need? Laith, Alison, and Adam are the totally talented three. Everyone else is disposable.

  22. Phillip C. says:

    I congrat all contestants for doing their part in making for a very good season 10. I have been an Alisan fan from the start and have had my own favorite and less favorites tunes she has performed. Some were amazing and some less but all were very good to the point that at times most of the others were completely outclassed and almost amatuerized by comparison. Bad season for them to compete as Alisan pretty much owned this season alone.
    CHRISTINA…ALISAN if you are watching and listening, if I were to pick a song for Alisan to perform, it would be a female version of a love song previously done by the Righteous Brothers. With Alisan’s’ voice and power I would LOVE to hear her do a females version of “UNCHAINED MELODY” an emotionally charged love song, I do not believe previously done by a female. Alisan….You could put a song like that with your skills at Number 1, on Billboard’s charts. You have the voice to pull that off…Royally! Hoping you see this I would LOVE to hear you finish the competition with this very song! You’ve already WON, You would make this song AMAZING!

    • Belle Ferrar says:

      Unchained Melody was done beautifully by LeAnn Rimes who has a much better suited voice for it. That song should NEVER be shouted/screamed which is what I fear Alisan would do. Her best performance was her audition but even then she had a little screaming going on. She isn’t a loud singer, she is a screaming singer but she doesn’t need to be. Christina likes her team to be loud and use a lot of vocal gymnastics which is why she hasn’t been very successful on this show I think. People get tired of hearing songs being done that way time after time after time. Use runs occasionally, not constantly. Good luck to the remaining singers.

  23. Kay Warren says:

    Laith and Mary Sarah really looked as if they are already star’s. They have a good chance of getting a recording contract whether they win or not. We have seen a 2nd or top 10 artist making an album before the winner does. By the way… The Voice ROCKS!!!

  24. Steve Chambliss says:

    I think everyone except Alison should go home and crown her the winner now! Quit dragging it out.