the voice predictions

The Voice Predictions: Who's at Risk on Top 11 Results Night?

Geez, thanks a lot, Beyoncé!

With tracks from Bey’s new Lemonade album occupying eight slots on the iTunes Top 10 singles chart, there’s no place for any member of The Voice Top 11 to get in formation for the coveted “iTunes bonus.”

In fact, only one Season 10 artist managed to crack the Top 20 at the close of voting (Tuesday at noon ET) — and that was Paxton Ingram at No. 18 (a complete turnaround from last week’s dismal, last-place chart position of No. 163). What a difference a Gospel track can make for a flailing artist!

Granted, downloads are only one component of the elimination equation — there’s also online and Voice app votes to consider — and last week, we learned that the hard way when Emily Keener, the third best-selling artist, got the boot. Still, over the last few seasons, iTunes position has been a solid predictive tool, and right now, there’s a pretty big divide between “haves” and “have nots” heading into a night when there’ll be a Bottom 2, an instant save, and only one elimination. Let’s take a look:

Ranking on iTunes Singles Chart at Close of Voting (Tuesday, Noon ET)
18. Paxton Ingram – Tasha Cobbs’ “Break Every Chain” (Team Blake)
26. Mary Sarah – Heidi Newfield’s “Johnny and June” (Team Blake)
29. Laith Al-Saadi – Ed Sheeran’s “Make It Rain” (Team Adam)
31. Alisan Porter – Lorraine Ellison’s “Stay With Me” (Team Xtina)
33. Adam Wakefield – Journey’s “Lights” (Team Blake)
34. Hannah Huston – Bonnie Raitt’s “I Can’t Make You Love Me” (Team Pharrell)
79. Bryan Bautista – Bruno Mars’ “Just the Way You Are” (Team Xtina)
96. Shalyah Fearing – Miley Cyrus’ “The Climb” (Team Adam)
98. Nick Hagelin – John Mayer’s “Your Body Is a Wonderland” (Team Xtina)
100. Owen Danoff – James Taylor’s “Fire and Rain” (Team Adam)
107. Daniel Passino – Cyndi Lauper’s “Time After Time” (Team Pharrell)

While Paxton winds up at the top of the sales heap this week, there are five other artists following in close succession who really ought to be safe: Mary Sarah, Laith Al-Saadi, Alisan Porter, Adam Wakefield and Hannah Huston. In other words, Blake Shelton can kick back, relax, and enjoy whatever’s in his cup, since all three of his artists look like locks to advance.

That leaves five remaining contestants who could be fending off nerves while they sing for your Tweets during the results telecast. Of them, I’m betting Bryan Bautista will sail through — not just because he’s the best seller of the trailing pack, but also because he dedicated his song to his teenage sister, and her weeping response was moving even to this cynical recapper.

That leaves us with Shalyah Fearing, Nick Hagelin, Owen Danoff and Daniel Passino as the most likely members of the Bottom 2.

While Shalyah underperformed in the lead-off death slot in Monday’s telecast, she arguably has the strongest overall body of work — and perhaps a fan base that will reward her for it? Daniel, for his part, was marginally better from a vocal standpoint than Owen or the completely out-of-tune Nick, but we’ve learned less about his personality and backstory over the last several weeks than either of his rivals — and that could seal his fate.

Look for a Daniel/Nick or Daniel/Owen Bottom 2. And given Pharrell’s less-than-passionate lobbying in these Twitter Save situations, I suspect his team will be down to just one singer by the time the credits roll.

Who do you think will and should go home on The Voice Top 11 results night? Sound off in the comments!