the voice predictions

The Voice Predictions: Who's at Risk on Top 11 Results Night?

Geez, thanks a lot, Beyoncé!

With tracks from Bey’s new Lemonade album occupying eight slots on the iTunes Top 10 singles chart, there’s no place for any member of The Voice Top 11 to get in formation for the coveted “iTunes bonus.”

In fact, only one Season 10 artist managed to crack the Top 20 at the close of voting (Tuesday at noon ET) — and that was Paxton Ingram at No. 18 (a complete turnaround from last week’s dismal, last-place chart position of No. 163). What a difference a Gospel track can make for a flailing artist!

Granted, downloads are only one component of the elimination equation — there’s also online and Voice app votes to consider — and last week, we learned that the hard way when Emily Keener, the third best-selling artist, got the boot. Still, over the last few seasons, iTunes position has been a solid predictive tool, and right now, there’s a pretty big divide between “haves” and “have nots” heading into a night when there’ll be a Bottom 2, an instant save, and only one elimination. Let’s take a look:

Ranking on iTunes Singles Chart at Close of Voting (Tuesday, Noon ET)
18. Paxton Ingram – Tasha Cobbs’ “Break Every Chain” (Team Blake)
26. Mary Sarah – Heidi Newfield’s “Johnny and June” (Team Blake)
29. Laith Al-Saadi – Ed Sheeran’s “Make It Rain” (Team Adam)
31. Alisan Porter – Lorraine Ellison’s “Stay With Me” (Team Xtina)
33. Adam Wakefield – Journey’s “Lights” (Team Blake)
34. Hannah Huston – Bonnie Raitt’s “I Can’t Make You Love Me” (Team Pharrell)
79. Bryan Bautista – Bruno Mars’ “Just the Way You Are” (Team Xtina)
96. Shalyah Fearing – Miley Cyrus’ “The Climb” (Team Adam)
98. Nick Hagelin – John Mayer’s “Your Body Is a Wonderland” (Team Xtina)
100. Owen Danoff – James Taylor’s “Fire and Rain” (Team Adam)
107. Daniel Passino – Cyndi Lauper’s “Time After Time” (Team Pharrell)

While Paxton winds up at the top of the sales heap this week, there are five other artists following in close succession who really ought to be safe: Mary Sarah, Laith Al-Saadi, Alisan Porter, Adam Wakefield and Hannah Huston. In other words, Blake Shelton can kick back, relax, and enjoy whatever’s in his cup, since all three of his artists look like locks to advance.

That leaves five remaining contestants who could be fending off nerves while they sing for your Tweets during the results telecast. Of them, I’m betting Bryan Bautista will sail through — not just because he’s the best seller of the trailing pack, but also because he dedicated his song to his teenage sister, and her weeping response was moving even to this cynical recapper.

That leaves us with Shalyah Fearing, Nick Hagelin, Owen Danoff and Daniel Passino as the most likely members of the Bottom 2.

While Shalyah underperformed in the lead-off death slot in Monday’s telecast, she arguably has the strongest overall body of work — and perhaps a fan base that will reward her for it? Daniel, for his part, was marginally better from a vocal standpoint than Owen or the completely out-of-tune Nick, but we’ve learned less about his personality and backstory over the last several weeks than either of his rivals — and that could seal his fate.

Look for a Daniel/Nick or Daniel/Owen Bottom 2. And given Pharrell’s less-than-passionate lobbying in these Twitter Save situations, I suspect his team will be down to just one singer by the time the credits roll.

Who do you think will and should go home on The Voice Top 11 results night? Sound off in the comments!

Comments are monitored, so don’t go off topic, don’t frakkin’ curse and don’t bore us with how much your coworker’s sister-in-law makes per hour. Talk smart about TV!

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  1. Voice Fan says:

    Song Choice affects the I-Tunes because voters download the songs they like. But I think most people vote for their favorites no matter what song they sing. That’s why Paxton didn’t even crack the top 100 on I-Tunes last week and yet he didn’t go home and two singers who placed 3rd and 7th on I Tunes were in the bottom two. Paxton went from the bottom of I-Tunes to the top this week because he sang a gospel song. Paxton will go through because he has the top I-Tune votes and he has a following or he would have gone home last week. My favorites, Mary Sarah, Laith, Adam and Hannah should go through without any problem because they were high on I-Tunes and they were voted in by America for the top 12. I don’t care about the other contestants so I wouldn’t care if any of them went home. The one I think should go home is Alysan but I know that won’t happen since she is the darling of the producers, judges and many of the voters who buy her shrieking and screaming I-Tunes songs.

    • Florence*TheMachineRulez!!! #TeamMariah says:

      oh well im sorry that she is one of the most well liked contestants this season. How awful for you, lol. cmon give her a break. daniel, mary, bryan, and even owen all had worst moments than her.

      • Voice Fan says:

        It’s a matter of taste in music. I prefer beautiful ballads to screaming and screeching.

        • Rochridge says:

          I agree. I haven’t really liked her (Alysan) from go. I can’t stand the screaming. I almost wish she had a different coach than Christina who encourages her to scream.

    • Alisan is A-Mazing! She should not go home, and, in fact, should win.

    • JM12 says:

      Can we please stop harping on who we DON’T like? When we don’t like a singer, how about we say so once and then move on to who we DO like?

      Gonna venture that Alisan has never personally done anything bad to any of us. So why the need to pick her apart mercilessly? Sheesh.

    • Sue Whitmarsh says:

      Alyson should tone it down a little, Maybe it wouldn’t be so shrieking! Sometimes I think judges are voting on the pasts of these contestants…..not really on their ‘VOICES’.

    • ALISAN is how it is spelled in her case. And she seems to be an all-around fav although some don’t like her voice. I actually like the rasp but I think she has the best shot in country. The genre does’t demand 1 be a teen to be signed or played, a lot of her classic favs like Blue Bayou wouldn’t translate on today’s pop chart of today which is a shame, but could translate into country/pop/blues. The fans love ragged, raspy voices and won’t hold an acting career that was almost all decades ago against her.

      Paxton has always said he’s a gospel singer w/deep church roots and nailed JESUS LOVES ME on his audition reel yet it took Pharrell REMINDING Blake he sings gospel & just like that Itunes flipped & responded after his very good performance last night. Laith isn’t my favorite, although I like him, but he was my fav last night. The voting is so wacky this yr I don’t even know. The reviewers, most who don’t get country, didn’t like Mary Sarah’s song choice but I think it was the smartest move she’s made in weeks, as she’s been losing steam to me, but I felt her Itunes would really rise after Johnny and June. Not only did it, but it also put the original artist & co-writer, Heidi Newfield, on Itunes again and her version is 8 yrs old! But Emily was doing well on Itunes, so who knows? I’m lost this year! I expect Daniel, Owen or Nick to be in bottom though based on comments, online polls, Itunes and Owen & Nick were weak last night with good songs. But I won’t even guess.

      • Puzzled says:

        Paxton didn’t sing Jesus Loves Me in the blinds; it was Brian who was on Pharrell’s team and then stolen by Adam!! Paxton is a dancer, and there have been no outtakes or videos to suggest he has gospel roots.

    • cheryl morgam says:

      I think alysan is very passionate when she sings. But favorites are important. Lathe is my favorite right now, Adam needs get more into hi songs he has the ability and Hannah just doesn’t have much going on but her voice and Shalymar be a little boring. Oh yea Mary SarahI also boring. Sorry what do I know!

  2. Nick, Owen and Daniel are absolutely the correct bottom three – I hope. (I don’t have faith in your prognostications, sorry Michael. Especially when it comes to race, gender and age and how those things drive voting blocks.)

  3. MynameisNO says:

    Owen will go this week. Daniel and Owen bottom two. Owen performs first, Daniel performs second. That performance spot for Daniel will seal it for him. Owen will go. 62% Daniel 38% Owen.

    • NO, I supect you’re right. Nick really should go but we’re probably stuck with him another week or more. My fear is that someone undeserving of the boot will be voted off – but I keep forgetting this isn’t about who is objectively better but who watches and votes. Which means we could be stuck with Nick all the way to the top 3 *shudders*

      • That’s your opinion. It’s music, it is all opinion-based. It is completely subjective.

        • You’re right, it is completely subjective. That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.

          • Oscarpig says:

            Type of music is certainly subjective. Ability to carry a tune isn’t. It’s physics I can appreciate a good singer or musician even if the jaundra of music has no appeal for me. Hey I’ll even listen to good rap as in Pitbull

      • says:

        Laith al Saadi might b the oldest, but w/o a doubt he his the best n a natural born entertainer.Laith should take it all.

        • Joyce says:

          He is the best musician on the show, bar none!

        • Laith is 38 and Alisan is 34, almost 35. I like them both but yes, Laith is in another league. I don’t think blues will tranlate as well at the end with viewers, which sounds crazy because good is good no matter the genre or age. Genres are for sissy’s. America loves to box people in for some reason. But this years voting has me baffled so what do I know?

          • cheryl morgam says:

            Ur right good is good,Nick,Ryan and Owen are good but Laithe, Alisan and Adam are better. Mary Sarah, Hannah,Paxton are OK too.

    • Don says:

      Owen will perform last no matter who he goes up against because he’s on Team Adam and they always do it in the same order

      • Jimmy says:

        I’ve never noticed that but I just went back and looked and it’s true! Team Blake always performs first for instant saves all the way down the chairs until Team Adam who always performs last… Also, the person who performed last as only ever lost once. And that was back in Season 6 one of the times Kat Perkins won.

  4. Timmah says:

    I don’t see two guys being in the bottom two. I think Shalyah could be in trouble, maybe even Mary Sarah.

    • Voice Fan says:

      Mary Sarah isn’t going to be on the bottom 2. She was number one on the I-Tunes Country Music Chart and Adam was number 2. Country music fans will keep Mary Sarah and Adam in the competition probably until the finale like they did Blake’s two country singers last season.

      Owen was in the bottom two last week and he was higher on the I-Tunes chart last week so guys can end up in the bottom two. If it goes by I-Tunes, Owen and Daniel will be singing for the save although they both sang beautiful ballads.

    • Shalyah being in the bottom two (undeservedly) is not out of the question, unfortunately, and kind of what I’m afraid of tbh.

    • Shalyah had a really bad night, but I don’t think she’ll go home.

  5. says:

    Laith al Saadi might b the oldest, but w/o a doubt he his the best n a natural born 2 rock n roll entertainer.thx!

  6. I often wonder what the judges hear ‘live’ as opposed to what I hear through my television. They rave about the vocals and honestly, I don’t think there was anyone (including Alisan – my favourite) who didn’t go flat and/or miss notes altogether last night, and yet I don’t recall a single critique to that effect. Caveat: I did ff through at least part of the commentary. Also, I don’t need or want a straight up karaoke version of a hit song, but for me, I Can’t Make You Love Me was unrecognizable (and horrid).

  7. Carry says:

    Too much screaming and weird enunciation. yuck

  8. Frank Mateljan says:

    What ever happened to Sawyer Fredericks, the best contestant this show ever had?

  9. Sheliah says:

    I hope Mary Sarah and nick make it they are good

    • Oscarpig says:

      In what universe is Nick good. Worse thing they ever did was bring him back. Spoiled the season. I miss Tamar

  10. Woody7 says:

    Anyone else cringe a little when Mary Sarah was talking about country music couples… Blake???

  11. dj says:

    I think Paxton moved up not only because he sang a gospel song, but because he had a much better vocal performance.

  12. dorothy feltner says:

    alisan porter is my favorite I love her singing I hope she wins it all. good luck alisan im rooting for you.

    • abby buss says:

      I have to agree with you! I love Alison! I hope she makes it all the way. We never watched show bu when we saw that she was going to be on this season, we new we had to watch!!!

  13. Steph C says:

    If you throw in youtube views of their Top 11 performances as an second indicator then Nick/Owen would be in the bottom two. And Paxton and Alison the top 2. Right now at 2pmPT the rankings look like this:

    Nick – 38,000 views
    Owen – 42,000 views
    Daniel – 54,000 views
    Hannah – 61,000 views
    Bryan – 73,000 views
    Shalyah – 78,000 views
    Alison – 100,000 views
    Paxton – 128,000 views

    Adam, Mary Sarah and Laith are the anomalies here. They sold well on iTunes but didn’t show strong rankings on views (38,000, 43,000 and 49,000 respectively).

  14. Debra says:

    Alison might be good, but feel like there is an arrogance about her. Like she feels she deserves to win because she was a child actress and opened for some top artists. I hope she doesn’t win, but Americas taste is questionable as seen by last years winners.

    • John Baldino says:

      I know what you are saying, but I think she is more confident then arrogant,She has this thing sewn up I believe, Adam said as much already.I think she is getting to a point where she is acting instead of performing and the quality is not as crisp and clean, Blue Bayou was flawless and clean now she is trying and it shows. I think she wins regardless

    • JM1 says:

      Huh? She seems grateful for this chance, not arrogant. None of us can intuit how she feels. Seems to me the show is hard to begin with, not to mention she is missing her babies.

  15. Linda Boer says:

    Owen will go home!

  16. John Baldino says:

    I am afraid Owens nerves got the better of him once again,I don’t think he will survive!!!

  17. Beverly says:

    I don’t usually go anywhere on line, and I don’t know if this is where I should say this. The Voice is probably our favorite tv show. We look forward to it every year. However, last nights show was such a disappointment. Totally boring and “just nothing”. I think they’re are a lot of good artist in this program, but judging from last night I don’t know where they went.

  18. PepperPot says:

    Christina has always been my least favorite coach but she has the magic team this year in my opinion. Nick will continue to advance as long as he keeps people up to date on his son until the very end.

    Pharrell on the other hand hasn’t been a good coach this year. He should have kept what he had then he could promote his own team. He’s spending more time/energy praising artists on other teams than his own.

    My personal tastes don’t run to Hannah’s Johnny and June but she did great with it and I tossed several votes her way. Not a blues fan, I can’t wrap my arms around Laith but he does it fairly well and adds a lot of variety.

  19. Joyce Rchardson says:

    The Alysan chick, all she does is scream her songs, the diva blaster!! Plus she has had her day and has all the training and experience over the rookies, just not fair to them!! Also the Laith guy is the same, he has already made records!! 20 plus years of training and study really???

  20. Tommy says:

    My suggestion for the VOICE is no bottom of screen tally information… It’s always taken away from news updates!

  21. Chipitasgirl says:

    If Adam keeps shouting how Alisen is going to win, no one is going to continue to vote for her….I worry about that since she is absolutely the best the show has to offer. I think he is saying that so people relax and don’t vote assuming that she is going to make it without the votes…..darn it, people…..don’t let him dissuade you from voting for her…..She touches the soul with her music.

  22. Peg says:

    Alison is not a vocalist, she only screams, and doesn’t do that we’ll.

  23. Kristi says:

    iTunes doesn’t affect the voting nearly as much as a cute kid with a sad story. I think Nick can ride his son’s sob story for another week or two…

  24. Linda says:

    All the contestants did a far better job than the decimation of “live & let die” by christina’s team. That was horrendous.

  25. Kjtaylor says:

    Wakefield should do a Burton Cummings song

  26. Michele says:

    All 4 of them were so good tonight. It gets better and better every season. It’s going to be awesome when Alisha Keys.

    Love the show and all the judges