Dancing With The Stars: Who Stands The Best Chance Of Winning Season 30?

Dancing With the Stars' Season 30 cast is now set, meaning it's time to do what we always do at this time of the year: Speculate wildly about each celebrity's chances!

Ahead of Monday's season premiere (ABC, 8/7c), we're breaking down our predictions of how Dancing's milestone cycle will pan out, from the performers destined for early elimination (a Cobra Kai sensei, perhaps?) to the legitimate contenders for that Mirrorball trophy. And though the official cast announcement earlier this month prompted the usual chorus of, "Wait, who are these people?" from some viewers, this year's roster is actually quite stacked with potential winners: A former backup dancer, multiple Broadway alumni and a current pop star? We've got ourselves a competition, folks.

We are missing a key piece of information here, and that's the list of professional dancers with whom each celeb will be partnered. Those pairings won't be revealed until Monday's premiere, and longtime DWTS fans know just how much the right (or wrong) partner can influence a contestant's time on the show. But even without that intel, we've made our best educated guesses for Season 30 in the list below, down to the dancer we suspect will inherit the Mirrorball from reigning Dancing queen Kaitlyn Bristowe in November.

Scroll through the photos below to see our full predictions for DWTS Season 30, then hit the comments with your own!

It admittedly feels like a cop-out to rank the season's oldest competitor — Kove is 75 years old — lowest on our list, especially when he'll certainly get support from fans of his acting credits like The Karate Kid (and follow-up series Cobra Kai) and Cagney & Lacey. But Dancing With the Stars has never been particularly kind to contestants of a certain age, and Kove is rumored to be paired with Britt Stewart, who's still relatively new to Dancing's pro game.

On one hand, at 21 years old, Jade seems like the kind of young, game-for-anything competitor that would typically thrive on Dancing With the Stars, and her 1.3 million Instagram followers (plus nearly two million YouTube subscribers) will surely play a big role in her success on the show. On the other hand, Jade is the daughter of Lori Loughlin and Mossimo Giannulli, who both pled guilty to their roles in the college admissions scandal of 2019. Judging by the comments section on our initial Season 30 cast reveal, viewers aren't too pleased to see Jade now stepping into the Dancing spotlight after said scandal, and it's possible her polarizing presence on the show could mean she's out early, regardless of performance.

One enduring phenomenon of Dancing With the Stars is NBA players' consistent struggle on the dance floor: In 29 seasons, not a single pro basketballer has reached the finale or gotten particularly close to it. For one thing, the typically massive height difference between an NBA player and his female partner has proven tricky to navigate, while previous competitors like Charles Oakley and Rick Fox have lacked the lightness and grace needed for ballroom dancing. In this case, Shumpert is a little younger than previous basketball players to appear on the show, which could give him an energetic edge. But if we're using history as our guide, we don't see Shumpert scoring on the dance floor.

Honestly, we're kinda fascinated to see how The Miz will do on Dancing, because it could go either way. As a WWE wrestler, The Miz is clearly athletic and possesses an energy that could serve him well on this show. But how will he fare with more serious ballroom styles, and is he graceful enough to master something like the Viennese waltz or a quickstep? We'd love to see The Miz surprise us, and we already know he doesn't back down from a Challenge.

Since Moore doesn't have a ton of dance experience to speak of, we're left to look at Dancing's track record with Real Housewives stars... and, well, it isn't great. With the exception of Lisa Rinna — who sorta makes this list on a technicality anyway; she competed on Dancing in 2006, and The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills didn't premiere until 2010 — most Housewives alumni have been booted early or were forced to leave due to medical issues. Here's hoping Moore can beat those odds, though she has her work cut out for her among such formidable competitors.

Chiu, a philanthropist and business manager, might not have the dance background of some of her fellow competitors. She did, however, appear on Netflix's well-watched unscripted series Bling Empire, which ought to give her enough voter support to avoid super-early elimination. She's also a longtime Dancing With the Stars fan herself, potentially making her one of the season's most committed and hard-working contestants. For Chiu, though, it could all come down to her pro partnership and her ability to establish herself early as a true contender.

Truthfully, even if Allen isn't the most elegant dancer right out of the gate, we suspect his country music fanbase will do much of the heavy lifting in those early weeks. (After Bobby Bones' win, we underestimate no one.) But Allen — who had a brief stint on American Idol's 10th season — also has some experience getting judged on an intense reality competition, and his career as a singer suggests he'll have at least a little rhythm out on that dance floor.

James is in an interesting spot here: Even though Bachelor Nation has historically rallied around even the weakest Bachelor/ette alumni competing on DWTS, former Bachelorettes Kaitlyn Bristowe and Hannah Brown have won the last two seasons of Dancing, and it's possible that fatigue of the franchise is about to set in with voters. Plus, even though James made history as The Bachelor's first-ever Black lead, his cycle of the dating series was mired in controversy, from his relationship with Rachael Kirkconnell to the Extra interview that ultimately got host Chris Harrison booted from the franchise. (And don't forget about this situation!) For that reason, James could have an uphill climb when it comes to wooing the home audience, and he'll need a solid partner to transform him from TikTok dancer into ballroom pro.

On paper, Green — who doesn't have any dance experience — seems like a middle-of-the-pack competitor, destined for a sixth- or seventh-place finish on the season. The caveat? Green is rumored to be partnered with his real-life girlfriend Sharna Burgess, which could either massively help or massively hinder his performance. In the past, Burgess has forged white-hot chemistry with all of her platonic partners, which suggests her pairing with beau Green could be even more intimate and natural than usual. Assuming they can communicate and work together well — and Green can, y'know, actually dance — this could be an exciting match-up to behold.

A legitimate dance background from her Spice Girls career, plus ever-growing nostalgia for '90s pop culture, would seem to equal a long and prosperous Dancing stint for Melanie C. She's up against some serious contenders, to be sure, but we think she stands a great chance of following in fellow Spice Girl Mel B's Dancing footsteps. (Mel B competed on Season 5, finishing in second place with Maks Chmerkovskiy... but it shoulda been first!)

Every Dancing season has a dark horse, and Hardin could very well fill that role this time around. Though she's among the season's older contestants, the actress is best known for playing Jan Levinson on NBC's still-incredibly-buzzy The Office, which is bound to keep her in the competition for at least those pivotal opening weeks. And even though the teens and twentysomethings of Gen Z — aka the demographic that has buoyed The Office's popularity in recent years — might not be Dancing's core audience, Hardin has the performing chops to succeed in the competition regardless. (She previously appeared on Broadway as Chicago's Roxie Hart.) Give her a partner that can choreograph to her strengths, and Hardin could make a strong case for that Mirrorball.

Perhaps a couple of years ago, Olympic gymnast Lee would have shot to the top of our rankings the moment her casting was announced. But as strong a competitor as Lee is likely to be, given her flexibility and athleticism, we've also seen gymnasts like Nastia Liukin and Simone Biles struggle to emote and commit to different characters while dancing, despite their technical precision. Coming off an intense (but triumphant!) Olympic stint in Tokyo, it's hard to predict whether Lee will encounter similar troubles on the ballroom floor, or if she'll emerge victorious like Shawn Johnson and Laurie Hernandez before her.

Through her YouTube channel and performing career, Siwa has already built a large and devoted fanbase. She's also got more dance experience than most other Season 30 contestants, which ought to put her in the finale right away. But Siwa has a unique challenge ahead of her this season: She'll be paired with a female pro as part of Dancing's first-ever same-sex duo. Regardless of  how the voting audience responds to an all-female pairing, Siwa will have to navigate new and potentially difficult choreographing challenges with a woman, and it remains to be seen how easily that milestone can be executed.

Underestimate the power of the Peloton following at your own peril, folks. Though Rigsby might not have the mainstream name recognition of some other celebrities on this list, he's quite beloved in the Peloton and fitness communities, and 900,000-ish Instagram followers isn't anything to sniff at. Plus, setting his fanbase aside, Rigsby started out as a backup dancer for pop stars like Katy Perry, and any number of his Peloton dance cardio classes will prove those skills haven't faded. Could Rigsby be clipping in for the long haul here? We strongly suspect so.

Take a quick scan through this list, and it's clear that Kloots has formidable competition in Season 30. Even with a following from CBS' The Talk, on which she's a co-host, Kloots might not have the fanbase of, say, a JoJo Siwa. But! Her résumé speaks for itself: Kloots has been a member of multiple Broadway ensembles, appearing in shows like Follies and Bullets Over Broadway, and she's a former Radio City Rockette, all but guaranteeing she'll be one of this season's strongest performers. Plus, we suspect the viewing audience will have deep sympathy for Kloots, who tragically lost her husband, Nick Cordero, in 2020 after a long and public battle with COVID-19. If Kloots is paired with a seasoned and challenging partner, and connects with voters quickly enough, we see her standing in that confetti shower later this fall.