Dancing With The Stars: Who Stands The Best Chance Of Winning Season 29?

Dancing With the Stars will look mighty different when it returns for Season 29, from a new host (and new judge) to a pandemic-induced empty ballroom.

But there's one important staple that isn't going away: that sparkling, well-polished Mirrorball trophy, for which 15 celebrities will begin competing on Monday (ABC, 8/7c). And though we could wait patiently until November, when the Season 29 champion is eventually revealed, we'd rather theorize about who stands the best chance at victory.

In the list below, we've ranked all 15 contestants from the upcoming cycle, based on how likely they are to snag that trophy later this fall. And though some dancers seem destined for early elimination — sorry, Carole Baskin! — the Season 29 roster is surprisingly stacked; from Olympic figure skater Johnny Weir to Cheer coach Monica Aldama, we've counted at least six competitors whose wins wouldn't surprise us in the least.

There is one caveat to this season's predictions: Though Dancing With the Stars usually reveals its celebrity/pro pairings ahead of the premiere, those are being kept secret until Monday's debut this time around. We've seen time and again that the right pro partner can help even the weakest dancers improve — but for now, we'll have to make our best guesses without that piece of intel.

Scroll through the list below to see our theories for Season 29, then drop a comment with the contestant you think will win the Mirrorball.

The year 2020 has felt so interminable, it's hard to believe Tiger King was only released on Netflix six months ago. But at the time of its debut, Baskin, Joe Exotic and the rest of the docuseries' colorful characters dominated the pop culture discourse, and it's possible that voters will keep Baskin in the competition out of sheer curiosity about what she'll do next. Still, her casting on DWTS has sparked controversy (given what Tiger King may... or may not... have revealed about her), and it seems more likely that Baskin will struggle to get the votes she needs to make it past Week 1.

Whereas football players have often excelled in the Dancing ballroom, NBA alumni have had a considerably tougher time staying in the competition. Though Oakley could find himself under the tutelage of an excellent partner, the track record of pro basketball players isn't encouraging — and the show often, unfortunately, bids an early goodbye to contestants of a certain age.

Schulman's MTV series, Catfish, remains one of the network's most well-known programs. Schulman himself, however, has been a polarizing personality over the years — and sexual misconduct allegations that came out against him in 2018 (which were ultimately found "not credible") probably won't help the reality host earn a following that gets him to finale night.

Given his rap career, Nelly could very well possess a musicality and rhythm that his fellow competitors lack. But the Grammy-winning rapper will need to quickly master the smooth moves of ballroom dance if he wants to stick around, and he'll need a pro partner who can instill that knowledge sooner rather than later.

Out of the 15 celebrities competing on this season, the Emmy-nominated Heche might be among the most well-known participants. (Her role in I Know What You Did Last Summer remains iconic, and we will not be taking questions at this time.) But the question remains: Will Heche establish a dedicated fanbase quickly enough to stay in the running, particularly on a show that rarely favors older contestants? We're not so sure.

In the early 2000s, Metcalfe seemed to be everywhere, with a memorable stint on Desperate Housewives and the title role in the teen movie John Tucker Must Die. In September 2020, it's unclear if Metcalfe will bring in enough votes to survive three months of competition; we suspect the actor will perform commendably, but will ultimately finish his run halfway through the season.

Mai has a few factors working against her in Season 29: She's not the most recognizable name of the bunch, and she doesn't have any previous dance experience under her belt. Mai does, however, co-host the popular daytime talk show The Real, which has a devoted fandom of its own. Still, the TV personality will have to set herself apart from buzzier contestants very quickly with impressive performances; otherwise, her Dancing career could be cut short before she realizes her full potential.

Machado might not strike you as a shoo-in for the Mirrorball, but she has serious dark horse potential: Her long career in Hollywood — including her stint on Pop TV's current One Day at a Time reboot — will likely bring in the fanbase she needs to survive a few weeks, and her background in dance gives her a nice advantage. Assuming she's not cut early, and she's paired with a partner who isn't afraid to challenge her, Machado could make a strong case for an appearance in the finale.

Of the many pro football players to compete on Dancing With the Stars, the majority have done quite well; four of them have won the Mirrorball, and six more have finished in either second or third place. That's more than enough reason to assume Davis has the athleticism and drive to do well in Season 29 — but more importantly, he'll need a pro partner that's ready for the challenge of transforming NFL intensity into ballroom grace.

Selling Sunset's third season just dropped on Netflix in August, making Stause's DWTS casting the timeliest of Season 29. (It doesn't hurt that her other notable TV credits are soap operas, which will no doubt bring in the votes she needs.) Assuming Stause picks up choreography quickly and forges a strong connection with her partner, she could be around for the long haul.

There's already precedent for a member of the Backstreet Boys to succeed on Dancing With the Stars: McLean's bandmate Nick Carter scored second place in Season 21 with pro Sharna Burgess. McLean is up against a deep bench of potential winners this time, and there's a clear difference between boy-band choreography and complex ballroom styles. But McLean's no stranger to learning tricky steps, and if he can easily transfer his pop skills to the quickstep, foxtrot, et al., he could have a real shot at hoisting that trophy.

There's a category of DWTS contestants that often succeeds just as much as the athletes: We're talking about the Disney stars. Across 28 seasons, six actors from Disney Channel shows and movies have reached the finale, with Liv and Maddie alum Jordan Fisher grabbing the Mirrorball in Season 25. Since Jackson is best known for her work on Disney Channel's Jessie and Bunk'd, her success seems like a foregone conclusion — and even if she didn't hail from a Disney series, her youth (just 18!) could allow her to try the risky, high-energy choreography that other contestants won't attempt.

If you watched even 20 minutes of Netflix's Cheer docuseries earlier this year, you know that Aldama is relentless in her coaching; she's a loving and supportive presence, but she also demands perfection from her team, and there's no reason to believe Aldama wouldn't demand the same of herself in the ballroom. She's physically fit, knows how to navigate choreography and seems to take rehearsal quite seriously — all reasons to suspect she could snag that Mirrorball in the end, then run into the ocean with it.

We try not to assume that figure skaters will automatically breeze through Dancing With the Stars — but with Weir, at least, that seems like a very plausible scenario. Having appeared at two Winter Olympics, Weir is quite familiar with the rigors of competition (including the intimidating process of getting scored by judges), and he's got enough experience with dance and choreography to do quite well in the ballroom. Yes, Weir has been the recipient of both adoration and intense criticism in the past, and it's not a foregone conclusion that DWTS viewers will back him. But when it comes to technique, we're not sure anyone is more prepared than Weir for what this show entails.

Even if Bristowe didn't have a lick of dance talent, there's a good chance Bachelor Nation would rally around her anyway; in the past, fans of The Bachelor and Bachelorette have staunchly supported all alumni from that franchise... even Joe "Grocery Store Joe" Amabile, who survived eight weeks of Season 27 despite his two left feet. In this case, though, Bristowe does have dance talent, so much so that she earned a dance scholarship in her early adulthood. There's a small chance voters won't give the Mirrorball to a second consecutive Bachelorette, following Hannah Brown's victory in Season 28 — but assuming Bristowe has a strong and likable partner, her fanbase and dance experience seem like the perfect combination for a win this fall.