This one’s gonna hurt.
The Voice‘s Season 10 semifinal results telecast (tonight, 8/7c on NBC) will find eight contestants winnowed down to just four — and predicting who’ll survive and who’ll fall is harder than ever.
The top three vote-getters will automatically advance, with the bottom two immediately sent packing. After that, the three remaining artists will duke it out with “Save Me” songs in an attempt to win the season’s final Twitter save.
Complicating matters? Six of the remaining contestants landed in the iTunes Top 10 at the end of voting — and qualified for the coveted voting multiplier.
Granted, downloads are only one component of the elimination equation — there’s also online and Voice app votes to consider — but for most of Season 10, iTunes has been a solid predictive tool. Let’s look at the stats, then make some educated guesses about who’s at risk:
Ranking on iTunes Singles Chart at Close of Voting (Tuesday, Noon ET)
2. Adam Wakefield – “I’m Sorry” (Team Blake)
3. Alisan Porter – “Desperado” (Team Xtina)
5. Mary Sarah – “I Told You So” (Team Blake)
6. Hannah Huston – “When a Man Loves a Woman” (Team Pharrell)
7. Bryan Bautista – “Hurt” (Team Xtina)
10. Laith Al-Saadi – “One and Only” (Team Adam)
27. Shalyah Fearing – “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” (Team Adam)
71. Paxton Ingram – “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That)” (Team Blake)
Not only do Adam and Alisan rank No. 1 and 2 in semifinal sales, but they also inarguably had Monday’s best duet, which can only help their cause. Look for them to advance without the need of a sing-off.
Shalyah and Paxton, meanwhile, have consistently been near the bottom of the iTunes pecking order — with Paxton needing the Twitter Save last week. By landing in second-to-last and last in sales, and with a poor duet showing to boot, they’re the obvious picks for instant ejection.
That leaves Mary, Hannah, Bryan and Laith hoping for the third automatic finale berth — and it’ll be a close call.
Hannah got the show-closing pimp slot, but Pharrell’s laid-back coaching style hasn’t been much of a boost. I’m pretty sure she’ll be part of the three-person sing-off. Laith, meanwhile, has been deeply consistent all season, but his lack of “growth arc” and his early-in-the-episode performance slot won’t do him any favors. I expect him to be singing for his life, too.
Bryan’s emotional story of becoming estranged from his dad — and the production’s push for Team Xtina all season — might make him a dark horse for the Top 3, but let’s not forget he needed his coach’s save in the Live Playoffs. Has he surged enough over the last month to have built a fan base?
Mary Sarah, by virtue of having the ultra popular Blake in her corner, is my pick to land in the Top 3 (especially coming off a very good performance), even if her overall body of work and vocal accuracy don’t really compare to Hannah, Laith or Bryan.
Predictions for Automatic Finale Berth: Adam, Alisan, Mary
Predictions for Twitter Save Sing-Off: Laith, Bryan, Hannah
Predictions for Automatic Elimination: Shalyah, Paxton
Who do you think will and should go home on The Voice Semifinal results night? Sound off in the comments!