American Idol: Who'll Win Season 15? Get Odds for All 14 Singers!

Some people wait a lifetime for a moment like this… but American Idol fans will only have to wait about seven weeks to get their bookend to Kelly Clarkson’s Season 1 victory.

But which of Season 15’s remaining singers is most likely to get that coveted confetti shower? We’ve reviewed their past performances, their feedback from the judges and the way they’ve been edited to rank the 14 hopefuls in order from least- to most-likely to win.

We’ve also included the competitive pros and cons for every contender who managed to steal a spot from the badly maligned semifinalist Shelbie Z. (Yes, we’re still bitter!)

Check out the gallery below — or click here for direct access — then hit the comments with your thoughts on who’s most/least likely to take home Nick Fradiani’s crown.

Comments are monitored, so don’t go off topic, don’t frakkin’ curse and don’t bore us with how much your coworker’s sister-in-law makes per hour. Talk smart about TV!

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78 Comments
  1. SaraPo says:

    where is Reality Check? :(

  2. Taylor P says:

    Personally pretty sure we’re headed for a Mackenzie-Dalton final two, in spite of the producers’ best efforts to (over)hype the strong group of girls this season. To be honest, though, I like both of them, so I’m not mad about it.

    • slowride says:

      Agreed, I’d be fine with a final 3 made up of Mackenzie, Dalton and Avalon. And then any of them can win that I’d be happy !

      • ytime says:

        I agree, that’s how it probably will end up being. But I really would like to see some other promoters grab some of the top 14 and have them cut records or perform in other entertainers shows. My honorary mentions are Olivia, LA Porsha, Thomas, Tristan, Sonika, and Lee Jean. I hope to see them or listen to their music in the future. Good luck to them all and I, and fan of idol from the beginning, will Mississippi the show.

    • Mary says:

      Hope not I want a Avalon, Olivia and I will take Mackenzie for third. Dalton does absolutely nothing for me so he probably will end up winning.

  3. Louie says:

    So annoyed with a majority of the contestants… I, too, can see Dalton taking it all but I so want Olivia to pull rabbit after rabbit out of her hat and magically win it all.

  4. danin says:

    Manny..super handsome???Not to me.

  5. Mike says:

    If you think Avalon as the second best chance of winning this season then I have a bridge to sell you.

  6. Maria says:

    I’m a bad Idol fan…I’ve mostly watched the last few seasons for Keith Urban. Not the point of the show…I know. But I do like Olivia. Great voice and she’s really adorable.

  7. Just my prediction…top 5 Dalton Mackenzie Avalon Olivia LaPorsha. Worthy of the top 10…Trent Sonika Lee Jenn Tristan. The rest…Manny Thomas Gianna and Jeneve are not my cup of tea. I personally want a Dalton and Olivia final showdown.

    • Lizzie says:

      My top 5 are Dalton, Mackenzie, LaPorsha, Trent, and someone, I guess either Lee Jean, Tristan or young Stringfellow, if he will STOP making those odd up-tick sounds with the notes.

  8. mac says:

    Your odds add up to 176%. (no judgement, just a case of Obsessive Math Complex)

  9. Sally McLinn says:

    American Idol should be a summer show like AGT. That’s the only way to reboot it.

  10. Shaun says:

    Think Olivia and Tristan will do better if they can find the right types of songs.Hope they think big time before choosing.

  11. Joe R says:

    This season began so promising and has quickly devolved into an embarrassing sh**show. I don’t love anyone who’s left. Starting with the biggest blunder in Idol history (eliminating Jessica Cabral) and now senselessly sending home actual adults with points of view like CJ Johnson and Shelbie Z in favor of a plethora of aimless teens is totally depressing. No wonder this show can’t produce a true star anymore.

    • girl_3 says:

      This. It’s like when your boyfriend/girlfriend wants to break up with you but they don’t have the guts to do it, so they do everything they can to annoy you so you’ll break up with them. The only thing that’s kept me remotely interested is the return of the alumni.

  12. Mike C. says:

    There’s no way these judges, mistakenly handed the responsibility of establishing the Top Ten, are going to put through only two minority singers. I am not being PC here, but optics are everything today, and more than a musical contest, this is still a Television Show. they’ll put Tristan and Lee through for sure.

    • Miscellaneopolan says:

      I’ve wondered about that. Does the show feel it has to put through a certain number of minority candidates before it feels safe in the eyes of the public? I’m not sure, but I don’t think there are so few qualified minority contestants that the production will have advance people who are undeserving.
      .
      Season 13 had three minority candidates in its Top 10 (Malaya Watson, CJ Harris, and Majesty Rose), while Season 10 had three in its Top 11 (Naima Adedapo, Thia Megia, and Jacob Lusk). The show didn’t get in any trouble then, so I don’t see why the judges couldn’t put through a similar number this year.
      .
      La’Porsha richly deserves a spot, so that’s easy. They should put Sonika through, too–she’s not the perfect contestant, but she’s pretty good in this field and deserves a chance. Manny Torres, Tristan McIntosh, and Lee Jean are all varying levels of lame, but so’s the rest of their competition at the bottom of the pack, so sure, put one of them through. I’d prefer Manny to Tristan, but Tristan to Lee. (And I’d prefer Lee to Thomas Stringfellow, but the ship seems to have sailed on that one.)
      .
      Incidentally, the production couldn’t avoid all of this it had simply advanced Jessica Cabral, who was born to Brazilian immigrants and completely deserved to be in the Top 10. But it’s too late now. IT’S TOO LATE.

      • Timmah says:

        I think they are particularly sensitive to putting through African-Americans due to the lawsuit. Not so much other minorities. We’ve seen top 10s before without any Asians or Hispanics. And have there ever been any Native Americans in the finals?

        • danin says:

          Yes, really..native Americans get so fiercely shafted..if I had a ton of money I’d start w/them.

          • Lyn says:

            I live in an area with a substantial native American demographic. Believe me they are not much into popular music and those that are lean toward country. Any I know don’t watch Idol either.

        • Terry says:

          or because of the backlash the Oscars is getting. They don’t want to start another hashtag – AmericanIdolSoWhite. lolz

  13. DAG says:

    I just wish Avalon would lose the Cliff Huxtable sweater.

  14. MamaLis says:

    I think it’s gonna be a Porshe | Dalton | ____ finale. Porsche and Dalton are different like Adam and Chris were different. Could go down like that. Myself, I really like what Dalton’s been doing.

  15. IG says:

    It will come down to Dalton and MacKenzie. But either would be a better choice compared to last year’s winner.

    • Ben says:

      I bet for adam lambert jr. and mono guy (Dalton and Trent)… just ’cause i don’t get at the magic about them… the same happen to me with Clark and Nick in the previous season and BANG… top 2.

      I’m not crazy about anyone.. they are all disappointing in some way. La’Porsha is great… but she seem an awesome one trick pony (ala Caleb).. it would be awesome that she win given her quality… but… given that she is an afroamerican woman i see hard that she can defeat the WGWG… and the rest of this season idols are just.. meh (’till now).

      • Lyn says:

        IMO Trent is dismal and makes weird and annoying face when he sings. He make think that makes him seem emotional, but it isn’t pretty.

        • Ben says:

          Told ya so!. xD… i have to said it again… i don’t get the magic about them at all, i find them annoying and vocally average… but the judges and people HERE just LOVE them.

  16. Get better Slezak! i needed to see you this week and Melinda too!

  17. danin says:

    Dalton Mackenzie Avalon Trent Olivia= top 5 Tristan Sonika Lee LaPo &Thomas = 6-10 or maybe Trent& Thomas switch positions.

  18. Evan says:

    I don’t know if you’re being pessimistic or are just seeing things all wrong, but Dalton as the favorite to win this season? Uh… no.

    My predix:
    1. Mackenzie
    2. Avalon
    3. Trent
    4. Thomas
    5. LaPorscha
    6. Manny
    7. Olivia
    8. Jeneve
    9. Dalton
    10. Tristan
    11. Jenn
    12. Sonika
    13. Lee
    13. Gianna

    • Shawn Latham says:

      Ok maybe I’m wrong here but I can see the top 4 as Olivia, Trent, La Porscha,Dalton. Mackenzie could get in there but I’ve been watching him for a few years including the Voice performances and if he wants it he has to be more outgoing. Dalton if he’s smart could win but he reminds me of a broadway star not a pop star. I could be wrong. LaPorscha could win if she goes more R&B Pop and not 60’s Soul, Trent has a pretty good shot if he can work on his face. None of the other guys are in the same league. Olivia is my pick yes maybe not but she has a lot of power behind her voice that only LaPorscha can match she just need to balance that with softness and consistency.

  19. JB says:

    Wow, you are so far off on some of your rankings, it’s sad and ridiculous….

    In likelihood of winning, this is how it should actually go..

    1. Olivia
    2. Mackenzie
    3. Avalon
    4. LaPorsha
    5. Dalton
    6. Trent
    7. Sonika
    8. Thomas (but ugh, his affectations are incredibly annoying)
    9. Lee
    10. Manny
    11. Tristan
    12. Gianna
    13. Jeneve (holy crap she’s dreadful, annoying, a comedic mess despite some talent for playing instruments. She has no business being in this show)
    14. Jenn (just awful period)

  20. et says:

    Trent so low at number 6? Hmmm. He is definitely for sure.

  21. Jessamine says:

    The last few winners have been the least polarizing contestants, not the best ones. Caleb and Nick stayed in their lanes and sang well consistently, even if they were somewhat boring. Dalton is just too polarizing to win. So are La’Porsha, Avalon, and MacKenzie. I predict that Olivia Rox will win and that Scott is hoping that she does.

    • Mary says:

      I don’t see how Avalon and MacKenzie are polarizing but I wouldn’t be upset with a Olivia win. I actually see either her or Avalon who might stand a chance in having a career.

  22. zach says:

    Wow! Michael’s #1 is the same as my choice weeks ago: Dalton Rapattoni. I think he’s the winningest of them all for his great voice, musicality, emotional connection, looks and overall performance. I also put Olivia Rox, Trent Harmon (minus the face twitching and over vibrato) and Jeneve Mitchell (without the cowboy attire) in Top 5 or 6 if the singers do away with those distractions.

  23. Trish Lang says:

    Mark it down. Makenzie/Dalton finale.

    • Bonnie A. says:

      Agree even though I think Olivia should be there, too . Girls just don’t get as many votes.

      As a side note, Haley and David Cook’s performances and mentoring made my week! Watched several times.

  24. Tyanna says:

    Can we get song suggestions and advice for each contestant in the top 10. Like you did last year?

  25. Erik says:

    They kept Tristan, Lee Jean and Jenn??? Jenn’s got the most artificially inflected voice heard on 99% of singers today, Lee Jean can’t sing worth beans and has no confidence, and Tristan (although she’s 15) is just not ready.

  26. Efe says:

    I was hating on Manny until his Coldplay cover which I actually really liked. If he delivers, he can actually make top 6-7. I feel like Mackenzie is the shock elimination of this year a la Colton. Top 3 will most likely be Dalton, LaPorsha & Olivia. Hope Olivia wins.

  27. Pam says:

    If Trent Harmon can perform during Hollywood week with mono, surely Michael Slezak, consummate professional that he is, can provide us with our weekly Reality Check fix in spite of his laryngitis!

  28. Danielle Pierce says:

    I think that Dalton rapattoni has a great chance to win because of his vocal abilities and his genre of music I love you Dalton!! Lol but yeah u have my vote

  29. Get well soon, Michael! Apparently, Olivia was hospitalized with something like the flu. Hope she is able to stay on the show. She should be Top 5 at least.

  30. andy says:

    dalton…i mean….is there any competition??? hes hot, can sing, has stage presence. hes the total package

  31. Paul John says:

    So what performance of Dalton’s can I watch that shows his vocal strengths? I saw the duet with Daughtry and the covers of Billy Joel and NSYNC and I’m not impressed yet. He is a beautiful boy and obviously has confidence and experience performing. But I haven’t heard anything yet that rises above being able to carry a tune. Is there another performance that I missed that shows what he can do?

  32. Evia says:

    I would like to hear Dalton sing a Kiss song Beth! I think the soft song is perfect for him. It is a really good fit for him. If you want a loud upbeat I think any Billy Idol or David Bowie song would be good for him. Just saying.😜

  33. Smokey says:

    Well, the Judges-producers-TPTB ” have already chosen the top 14. Now, they will give certain ones a “free pass” so they don’t have to compete for votes in “rounding-out” the top 10. So while the show is not fixed, it is more “controlled” and steered this year than ever before.The past 3 winners have not made much of a ripple in the music biz, and the Idol powers are hoping to find a wave-maker this year.

  34. Not my top picks, but that is nothing new. I’m surprised no one else is commenting on how much Dalton looks like Elvis. If his hair had the bleach out and were combed in a traditional style, he’d be a look alike for certain. My picks are Trenton, Jeneve, and Avalon.

  35. some of them are bad this year , i mean plan bad

  36. some of them are bad this year , i mean just bad

  37. Debbi says:

    Harry connick Jr obviously read this article he commented on the singers with the same critiques wed. Night

  38. debbik99 says:

    Which makes me think” conspiracy theory ” why did he read article on betting odds unless he’s planning on placing bet, which is probably prohibited because he can influence the outcome.

  39. Wanda says:

    Loved his song tonight and his performance!

  40. Sindy says:

    In my opinion, I believe that if you have a voice you can sing and that’s talent, but I also believe that if you have a voice, play an instrument and writ your own music that’s real talent. I am not sure why MacKenzie got voted off.

  41. RANDALL HILL says:

    I can’t believe this!!!!
    Either the entire audience, including America is tone deaf or this judgement was fixed.
    I have to believe the latter of the two.
    There is no way possible that La’Porsha didnt win this.
    I mean com’on ????
    She has been slaughtering all of the other contestants for at least the last six episodes.
    I’ll admit that Trent got better towards the end of the contest, but no way close to beating La’Porsha.
    I sincerely think someone needs to check this out more & see who was in charge of the votes.